The NFL bye week is actually a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough focus to. In the event you consider yourself a novice sports bettor, and you also spot the sort of betting line that has you quickly heading to Google News as well as your favorite sports stat site to find out if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice if it team’s opponent is originating off a bye. For anyone advanced sports bettors being affected by the bye week, I’ll cover some advanced level research and insights about the bye in the following paragraphs. Before getting to that particular, I’ll address some general points for everyone uncertain what a bye week is, or on what weeks teams have byes.
While you probably know, sbobet in thailand is made up of each team playing 16 games. Way back in 1990, the league changed to some 17 week season as a way to profit more from television advertising. This left each team having a single week off at some point in the season referred to as a bye week. The bye week used to be random spanning on the entire season, nevertheless in 2004 to make a more uniform agenda for the playoff race, the format was changed. The way it operates is now bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. Being a sports bettor, you’ll need to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, because they have the benefit of additional time to relax, improve your health, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in your analysis, another area recreational bettors need to concentrate on is Thursday games. Starting week 10 from the NFL season there is a single Thursday night game, and on Thanksgiving there are 2 additional Thursday day games. This means that on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is usually the case for teams; it is therefore not something to worry about. Where it might be a problem will be the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and may acquire a similar advantage to usually the one they may have from the bye week. Be certain when coming up with bets around the NFL to cover attention both to teams coming off the bye, and to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Due to the fact this isn’t an article about statistical handicapping models, a subject which 95% of readers may find too advanced, I won’t enter into it in much more detail than to generate a single statement after which support it. That statement: the greater a team is, the greater they enjoy the bye week. This may not be a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis that this best odds makers know about. To offer you a tiny clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is a multiplier according to power rankings. All teams take advantage of the bye week, but how much they benefit is proportional to how good of your team these are.
In the event the above statement is at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share basic stats about how precisely well teams coming away from the bye week have fared that may help you be aware of the lines a little better.
On the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where only one team is coming away from the bye, the group coming off the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 versus the spread.
Now, if you’re thinking of betting teams coming off of the bye as the past four years they’ve covered 58.1% of times, read my article on the current betting market. A process like that might have worked in 2006; but, very likely than not, this trend won’t continue. This is because today NFL betting lines are much more efficient, along with the market will likely correct itself.
The typical ATS details are nice, but it really doesn’t inform us much unless we break it down further. After doing this, a more interesting trend appears. Using the same 110 game sample, teams coming from the bye week which are favored have a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming from the bye possess a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is quite small, but 15-1-2 from the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To share a remote stat out from articles I wrote several dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (over a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of times.
To return to and have more accurate 4 year numbers for all favorites coming away from the bye, there are 9 games missing from the 110 sample size I used. This is because 9 times since 2007 there are games where both teams were coming off the bye. (32×4=128), I bought the 110 sample size because 18 in the byes were not related to opening discussion.
The data here strongly supports that good teams enjoy the bye a lot more than the marketplace is offering them credit for. I only say that because only good teams are favored on the highway within the NFL. Using just road favorites is quirky, however, and several might think about it “data mining”, even if this trend is well founded when dating back to much beyond 2007. If we’re planning to really consider this comprehensive, though, we have to have a look at subsets of favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s built into the spread.